Post election blues (or purples)
In the small hours of the morning it was confirmed that Douglas Cardwell was the first MP elected for UKIP. After over a decade of performing well at European Parliamentary elections, UKIP have now had electoral success at Westminster.
There is a history of the two major parties losing by-elections to candidates outside the mainstream (think George Galloway) but the last time an incumbent MP triggered a by-election after defecting was Bruce Douglas-Mann in 1982, and it didn’t end well for him.
Douglas Carswell not only won, but convincingly so, just shy of 60% of the vote. Whether it was his personal popularity in the constituency, or a surge in the UKIP vote, remains to be seen. One interesting detail is that UKIP didn’t stand a candidate against Carswell in Clacton in 2010, meaning there were no previous electoral figures to compare UKIPs performance with.
The official register of @DouglasCarswell's election as UKIP's first MP. Tiny little bit of history. pic.twitter.com/FnkQpWVRfp
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 10, 2014
While Carswell re-election was not a shock to anyone, UKIPs performance in Heywood and Middleton, trailing only 2 percentage points behind Labour, indicated a greater trend in UKIPs appeal beyond the coastal areas where they have traditionally done well.
Heywood and Middleton was supposed to be a safe Labour seat, and increasingly their vote less than 1% over their poor performance in the 2010 general election was seen as troubling, but not a complete disaster.
Moving Forward
With their current polling could UKIP conceivably become a leading force in British politics? Unlikely.
The way our electoral system works means that the national polling never corresponds directly to the number of seats in the commons. The FPTP system rewards parties who have built up support in key constituencies over a number of years. At the moment UKIP just don’t have the history behind them.
Who did UKIP voters back at previous election? @afneil looks at the stats on #bbctw pic.twitter.com/lPb5JFfxC2
— BBC This Week (@bbcthisweek) October 9, 2014
While it is true that a large proportion of UKIPs vote comes from disaffected Tories, they are also picking by a significant number of people who didn’t vote in previous elections.
After his historic victory, Douglas Carswell said that all he wanted was “a quiet cup of tea and then bed”.
What does the newest MP want after winning #ClactonByElection ?
"A quiet cup of tea and then bed" @DouglasCarswell tells @afneil
— BBC This Week (@bbcthisweek) October 10, 2014
Will Carswell’s ‘cup of tea’ replace the Farage ‘pint of beer’?
Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
This article was edited slightly when I moved it to my new website in April 2016
