This series of articles examines and fact checks some of the Vote Leave and Britain Stronger in Europe arguments for voting to Leave or Remain in the European Union. For a short summary of both sides’ arguments look here.
Vote Leave Claim: Immigration into the UK
More than a quarter of a million people came to the UK from the EU in the 12 months to September 2015 – the equivalent of a city the size of Plymouth or Newcastle in a year. If this rate continues for a decade, there will be more than two million extra people. EU law means all members must accept ‘free movement of people’. Many immigrants contribute to our society. They also affect public services. Experts disagree on the overall effect.
Verdict: Mostly true, but disingenuous.
Analysis:
There is a lot to unpack here, so lets take it line by line.
The first claim is that “more than a quarter of a million people came to the UK from the EU in the 12 months to September 2015”. For a statistical claim like this we can look at the Office of National Statistics (ONS) figures, which say:
The estimate of immigration for EU citizens was 257,000
but…
Net migration of EU citizens was estimated to be 172,000
So while the claim of “more than a quarter of a million people came to the UK from the EU” is true, it definitely doesn’t provide us with the whole picture. It doesn’t take into account that Britons migrate to EU countries, and also doesn’t take into account that many EU migrants who have come to the UK in previous years go back to their countries of origin.
Their city comparisons for their amount of people are broadly accurate. According to recent ONS estimates the City of Plymouth has a population of 261,546, and the City of Newcastle has a population of 289,835. Hull, with an estimated population of 257,710 might have been a better comparison, but their suggestions aren’t wildly out.
If we take the net figure, a better measure of the impact of the migration onto the UK, we find that it is the equivalent of the City of Chelmsford, at an estimated 171,633. But that doesn’t sound as impressive, does it?
They go on to say that “if this rate continues for a decade, there will be more than two million extra people”. Under their immigration claim that is evidently true. Under the net figure it comes to the not insignificant 1.7 million. This claim is broadly true.
But this all assumes that immigration will continue at its current rate. There is no way to tell that it will. It might go up, it might go down, it might stay the same.
Next, the claim that “EU law means all members must accept ‘free movement of people'”.
The crux here is the phrase ‘free movement of people’, which has been the source of confusion and debate in the EU for many years. Yes, there is ‘free movement of people’, but what exactly does that mean? Is it absolutely, 100% unequivocally free? No. Do we still need passports or ID cards when traveling to and from the UK? Yes. Is the ‘free movement of people’ more or less free in the conventional sense? More or less.
If we were in the Schengen area, and effectively didn’t have a border with the rest of Europe then this would be completely different. But we aren’t, and no one is suggesting we join.
Finally, the last three sentences:
Many immigrants contribute to our society. They also affect public services. Experts disagree on the overall effect.
True. True. True.
A large part of what they say is true, but so much is left out to the point of being disingenuous.