With results from all across the country, Election 2016 saw regional parties becoming major players more than ever before. I look at the winners and losers in the different races.
Scottish Parliament elections:
Winners: Conservatives
Losers: Labour
For more than a generation the Conservative Party were written out of Scottish politics, and Labour were ever dominant. Now, with the rise of the SNP, and the rise of nationalism and regionalism in Scotland, Labour doesn’t seem to have a satisfactory answer to the problems of the Scottish people. The Conservatives had a fantastic election in Scotland, and now with charismatic leader Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservatives are the official opposition. The SNP, falling just short of a majority, are planning to form a minority government. This new dynamic in Scotland could have a major impact on Labour’s chances of winning a general election in the foreseeable future.
Welsh Assembly elections:
Winners: UKIP
Losers: Liberal Democrats
Labour are still the largest party at the Welsh Assembly, but the main story of the day was UKIPs success in Wales. With 7 seats, UKIP are now a moderately sized force in Wales. The Lib Dems had another fairly disastrous election, ending up with only a single AM.
English local council elections:
Winners: ?
Losers: ?
These elections were a mixed bag. At this point in the election cycle you would expect the incumbent party to be punished, and the opposition to make significant gains. That didn’t happen, but it wasn’t expected to happen. The expectations were that Labour would make significant losses, and the Conservatives would make a few losses, but stand their ground. In fact, Labour did slightly better than predicted, but nowhere near as well as they should have done given historical trends. The Conservatives did slightly worse than expected, but nowhere near as badly as they should have done.
London Mayoral election:
Winners: Labour
Losers: Conservatives
This was a big victory for Labour, but it wasn’t an unexpected one. The polls were fairly close at the start, but the last few months it has been fairly clear that Sadiq Khan would do well. In fact, he did very well. Sadiq Khan now has the largest electoral mandate of any UK politician in history. What he does with it will be anyones guess, but there is already talk of him as a future Labour Leader if he succeeds in his London post.
This election was particularly bad for the Conservatives due to the widespread criticism of Zac Goldsmith’s campaign. Senior Conservative figures have already come out criticising Goldsmith. This could have ramifications for years to come, with some Conservatives worrying that Goldsmith’s negative campaigning might have lost them London for a generation.
The final word:
This week also saw Police and Crime Commissioner elections, London Assembly elections, Northern Irish Assembly elections, and others, but these were mostly overshadowed by the London Mayoral and Scottish elections.
With regional parties across the country, and Labour and the Conservatives both doing well in different areas, it is difficult to draw any national conclusions from these elections. Nonetheless, it looks like Labour have work to do if they want a future in Scotland, and the Conservatives have work to do for a future in London.